In What Should We Expect from Head Coaches?, Joel responds to his views on MRKT insights' essay - Hiring Head Coaches - Why Style Matters. He argues against coaches remaining static and relying on style to identify, platform, and develop players. For these coaches, aligned profiles are more important than overall ability. He explains that this 1) compromises quality for fit and 2) carries risk for repetition elsewhere.

In his words:

"A head coach's decision to adopt an attacking style, despite their team's inability to effectively compete using such tactics, might reflect poorly on their talent ID."

"For this essay, I define Talent ID not merely as spotting capable players but as understanding which environment maximizes their abilities."

Since top clubs consider philosophical and stylistic fits when recruiting, coaches tend to lean into a style resembling that showcased by top clubs. In turn, forsaking the possibility to attain better results. Joel argues against this – that what is expected from coaches, first and foremost, is that they appreciate a player's abilities.

Furthermore, he explains, aligned but less effective players may contribute to building a stylistically fitting team, though this will be at the compromise of other more sophisticated and competent players.

He concludes with an upgraded version of MRKT insights' claim that:

"... good teams, play good football, with good players."

Joel proposes:

"[the best] teams play good football with [the best] players."

Luqman's Take

When assessing head coaches, it is most important to know how well they can platform talent available to them. Not whether they want to build from the back or press high in the opponent's half. This informs us that the coach's processes are player-centered, and thus, they are sustainable in the long term, even if sometimes results will not immediately reflect.

Considering this, recruiting a coach is not only a matter of assessing what they bring on the pitch but rather assessing fit in the necessary hallmarks.

It makes sense that to play a certain style of football, a set of players that align with said style are needed. For example, Pep Guardiola's teams have always had technically sound players that take good care of the ball. But the real matter lies not in the style a coach prefers but rather the premises from which this style is obtained.

This is because the best teams are a product of quality players, the needle-movers, best-in-the-world players. Coaches should always be humble enough to put their ideals away and focus on setting up the best conditions for their players. Ultimately, even after weeks of preparation, months of training, and millions of instructions and tactics; coaches do not play. They can only do so much.

"I change when it's the players. When I have, for example, Bernardo [Silva] as a winger, or Leroy Sane as a winger, it's different. Bernardo has to get the ball to feet, and Leroy you give the ball in behind. "

Here's another one:

The best teams are shaped by the players. Coaches adapt to their players.

In another excerpt:

"Coaches aren't necessarily required to know the best talents from other teams; a well-established network can often supplement this knowledge. However, it is crucial for any coach to possess a keen eye for identifying and utilizing the talents within their own squad effectively."

This is what Joel refers (and I allude) to in his essay as Talent ID. Might I sprinkle an extra term here: Profiling.

Coaches serve as platformers. They appreciate talent and trust that it will bloom to achieve great heights — Talent ID.

They see into a player's abilities and offer the best possible conditions for development and utilization — Profiling.

The best coaches know, understand, value, trust, and empower their players to the utmost.

It is obvious we value head coaches and probe their work because they are afforded the mandate to determine a team's pathway: who gets how many minutes, in which game, which tactics are used, against which opponent; it's these decisions that make it significant to know, as Joel says, what to expect from head coaches.

However, while reading that essay, I found myself disagreeing with some arguments.

Disagreements

After some time thinking, re-thinking, testing, and experimenting, I finally gathered enough clarity to transform the thoughts lurking in a corner of my mind into real, understandable words. Below is what culminated.

1. Fundamentals provide the base that sets a stage to refine principles and beliefs. A strong enough base ensures the materials atop it are laid out in a manner that allows refinement of the highest accord. This is why fundamentals are held constant. It is expected that accomplished coaches in elite professional football, via their journeys, have attained enough clarity in their principles and beliefs to have them prefer a specific way of playing. As explained in Joel's essay, a specific way of playing requires a specific set of players with aligning attributes.

How then are coaches to avoid the pitfall where they compromise quality for fit in their Talent ID?

2. Similar to fundamentals, coaches tend to stick to their methods. Because 1) these are a resemblance of who they are as human beings and 2) they have tested most of, if not all, of these, throughout their careers. And at reasonable success rates. This dive into preference translates into style. However, at certain clubs, this preference does not always come to fruition.

Should these coaches abandon the belief they have in their methods and opt for presumably better ones that yield?

Some Possible Ways to Solve This

Modern coaches need a contrasting perspective on specification

The general approach taken by club executives to plan the execution of day-to-day footballing matters has led coaches astray. Coaches have been engulfed in attempting to gain specification almost the same way that executives have done. That is, by defining needs and wants to gain clarity in their processes. However, such an approach might actually be of little use.

One significant expectation from coaches is that they provide authoritative organization and coordination. That is why, first and foremost, coaches should empower and platform players by providing the utmost conditions for them to thrive.

Specification in style is a product of a descending strategy: Principles —> Style —> Players. That goes in contrast to what is expected from coaches.

This, while beneficial as a macro-strategy for clubs, is detrimental to coaches. An ascending strategy might be of better use: Players —> Style —> Principles.

Here's a table comparing the two:

Strategy

Advantages

Disadvantages

Descending

• Ensures philosophical consistency across the organization

• Long-term identity building

• Easier to scale and replicate

• May limit flexibility with player selection

• Can feel rigid or dogmatic

• Slow to adapt to changing conditions

Ascending

• Maximizes current player strengths

• Fast implementation

• Adaptive to real-world constraints

• May lack cohesive identity

• Style can feel reactive or temporary

• Harder to build long-term culture

It is particularly clear that the game needs specificity. But under attentive observation, it is also true that rigid stylistic preferences among coaches are misleading and, ultimately, continuously depriving teams of quality and players of their potential.

Adaptation and Evolution are Inevitable

Fundamentals, principles, and beliefs will always remain constant as these birth a base for actionable processes. Nonetheless, no matter how strong one's beliefs, the game requires us to be able to abandon what is no longer actionable for that which is sustainable.

Coaches must possess the mental resilience to revise previous conclusions and attain new, better ones as premises for their processes. This ensures they stay ahead, remain competitive and diversify their processes.

NothingDependentHinges like a bit of validation from one of the best coaches in the world to make me feel good about myself.

"You have to [adapt], sometimes because you want to adapt, sometimes because you have to adapt. And you have to have that resilience and leave your ego aside and your ideology aside and do what you have to do to win the game"

Adaptation is Dependent and Hinges on Variety

In another essay, I argue that for head coaches to concur their processes, variety is pertinent.

Therein I wrote:

"Questions on the importance of head coaches pry us to describe their main roles and, in the end, suggest the best possible pathway for them to undertake their tasks."

"It is established that coaches, among other sports professionals, need to evolve and adapt. What is not established is the extent that will effectively enable transitioning to present requisites while holding on to core principles. The answer: variety."

"Extrapolating this to the game, everyone involved needs to adapt and, consequently, evolve. Diversity is a leeway towards this."

This still holds true today.

I have found financial status to be the main determining and differentiating factor on the need for diversity (variety). The better a club's financial position the higher the leeway and the lesser the need for diversity, and vice versa.

Financially robust clubs can afford being strictly committed to a style, seldom are they required to readjust their approach with regards to competition level and resources, or lack of.

Coaches at these clubs are afforded the choice in securing individual preferences (style) as the focal point for their processes and implement a descending strategy.

So, what should we expect from head coaches?

• They identify talent within their squads

• They trust and appreciate talent

• They platform players for the best performance

• They aid minute-to-minute development

• They create a culture and environment that promotes nurturing athletes

What Should We Expect from Head Coaches?

Who is The Writer?

Luqman A. Kabange is a college student at the Kibaha College of Health and Allied Sciences (KCOHAS) in Pwani, Tanzania where he studies clinical medicine.

This piece shows how a lightweight, falsifiable scouting framework flagged Álvaro Fernández Carreras early and held up through his 2025 jump to Real Madrid. The approach centers on portable traits, role elasticity, improvement edges. It travels across leagues and coaches and is designed to plug into a club’s identification and decision cycles.

It doubles as a proof-of-work for how I scope value, risk, and coaching levers.

Early signals that scaled

1. Portable athletic tools

• Pace over distance, stride efficiency, and balance at recovery height.

• Outcome: projects to defend the back post and still arrive in the final third without system tailoring.

2. First-touch orientation and carry profile

• Open-hip first touch under pressure, shin-high control, forward release.

• Outcome: access to cutback lanes and flat deliveries regardless of crossing volume.

3. Delivery mechanics

• Driven balls to zone 12 and low cutbacks over floaters.

• Outcome: value scales upward with better timing movers; fewer empty crosses.

4. Role elasticity

• Trusted to toggle LB ↔ LCB in buildup and defend touchline space.

• Outcome: coach trust under pressure minutes, faster integration after level jumps.

5. Ambidexterity under pressure

• Right-foot utility, not a one-off. Shifts reception to the right to exit pressure, controls on the right at the byline, and can release off either foot in-field.

• Outcome: trust in buildup, switches, as pressure cushion from forward players.

These markers were logged during Preston, Granada, and Benfica minutes and were framed as league-agnostic.

Podcast from July 13, 2025

The projection, timestamped

• Time window stated then: top-five U23 LB outcome by 2025 if placed in a team that values width and late box entries, with a secondary path as inverted LB/LCB in first phase.

• Benchmarks: mixed usage across touchline width and LCB support in rest defense.

• Risk note: low-touch, low-block teams would delay outputs without invalidating the traits.

(projection archive: 1, 2, 3, 4)

April 2022

What happened next

• Context accumulation: Preston added decision reps; Granada added LaLiga defending; Benfica added high-possession repetition.

• Level jump: Moved to Real Madrid in July 2025 and entered XI immediately.

• Minutes till date: Played more minutes than any other Madrid outfielder (981) - at the time of writing.

• Recent goal:

The same flat, driven mechanics and carry angles that produced service value also produce strike value when lanes open at super-club tempo.

Development areas

1. Decision timing on defensive “jumps”: At United and early Preston, the choice to step in front vs drop could be late or optimistic. Burned on first receptions during line shifts. One-v-ones when set were fine; the issue was pre-duel decision timing.

   1. Why it matters. Elite sides lose points on these exact half-spaces.

2. Right-foot usage rate, not ability: Ability exists; usage is situational. In tight final thirds, patterns still bias left-foot shapes.

3. Back-post aerial timing: Reactive at the far stick in scrambled phases.

4. Rest-defense recovery lanes after overlaps: Occasional flat recoveries leave the inside lane open on loss.

5. Foul discipline in chase transitions: Aggressive recovery can gift wide set-pieces.

6. Set-piece roles: Underused as back-post runner and first screen.

What this means for a club

The method, in brief.

1. Prioritize portable traits over league-specific dominance.

2. Score role elasticity before you scale the grade.

3. Benchmark actions, not outcomes (entries, receptions, releases).

4. Timestamp projections and track slippage or acceleration.

5. Reconcile in public against events to calibrate.

Manchester United usage, as a counterfactual

The player accrued real minutes and then value elsewhere. Public reporting now frames him as “one that got away,” which aligns with the original claim that a rotation role would have been low-risk upside protection for a squad short of left-sided carriers who can both overlap and underlap.

January 2023

How such process might slot into your club's pipeline.

1. Identification: I supply shortlists keyed to portable traits and role toggles that fit your game model.

2. Pre-recruitment risk: Candidate cards include context dependencies and failure modes.

3. Onboarding: First 8–12 week checklists with action benchmarks that match your staff language.

4. Post-move validation: Projection vs reality audits that update priors and resale curves.

Bottom line

The early reads on Álvaro Fernández Carreras was right for the right reasons. The same portable tools and role elasticity that showed up years ago now explain his Madrid minutes. The framework is simple to adopt, hard to fake, and built to de-risk recruiting decisions.

Community-powered insights on sports

Some people who follow the BallerzBantz X account or subscribe to this blog include the former coach of the world’s top chess player; the technical director of a national cricket team; a former engineering manager at a multibillion-dollar technology company; a 21-year-old founder building tools to streamline job applications; a state commissioner for health in my home country; physicians across multiple continents; and many of my high-school classmates who are now new-grad software engineers in the U.S. tech industry – including one of the co-founders of this blog.

Our community spans games, medicine, technology, governance, and entrepreneurship. When people with this kind of intellectual range turn their attention to sports, the results are anything but ordinary.

Some of them have never watched a live professional match, or played competitive sport in any systematic way – yet they are smart, intuitive, and radically clean slates in relation to mainstream sporting analysis.

What unites them is simply an interest in sport. The specific intensities of their interest vary greatly: some are die-hard fans of Manchester United and probably find my tweets amusing; others work behind the scenes to support athletes, building frameworks or tools gleaned from non-sports domains; some are problem-solvers who instinctively ask: What if I apply X from engineering/medicine/data science to sports?

Whatever the nature of their interest, the simple truth remains: they engage with football (or sport more broadly) while maintaining expertise in a completely different domain.

And that brings me to the question:

What happens if you got these kinds of people – outsiders in the sporting world yet experts in their own fields – thinking about sport at large?

What Are Sports Converging On?

To understand the end result of such an endeavor, it’s useful to ask: What does athletic performance seem to tend toward?

At a glance: faster, stronger, quicker, more dramatic, greater spectacle, higher stakes. On one side you have pure performance (how fast a sprinter runs, how high someone jumps). On the other side you have money, attention, broadcasts, viral moments – what we can call “attention performance”.

So, two forces seem to be shaping sport:

• Performance (aka Winning): the traditional axis – athletes, coaches, trainers, and technology.

• Money/Attention: media rights, social media virality, fan engagement, brand value.

If you accept these two axes, then it should come as no surprise that robotics, AI, analytics, and cross-domain innovation are creeping into sport.

What Do The "Outsiders" Bring?

When someone whose primary career has been in engineering, medicine, software or governance asks “Why is this done this way in sport?” you start to get fresh questions.

One of the clearest areas where outsider minds are already in motion is forecasting and analytics. Platforms like Metaculus, originally designed to predict scientific or technological events, show how probabilistic modelling can aggregate diverse expert inputs and surface predictions.

What if a league or sport adopted a similar model – crowd-forecasting major events, player injuries, broadcasting metrics?

Robotics, Humanoids & the Frontier of Athleticism

Beyond analytics, the very nature of athletic performance is being challenged by robotics and AI. For example:

1. The first full multi-sport competition for humanoid robots, the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing (2025) featured more than 500 robots from 16 countries across 26 disciplines.

2. Research into robot athletes – e.g., simulated humanoids in “SMPLOlympics” (sports simulation environments for humanoids) show robotics is not just toy-level but approaching serious athletic modelling.

What happens when the boundary between human athlete and machine athlete starts to blur?

Here are a couple of scenario-pathways that may emerge from this development:

1. Humans continue to be the centre of sport but are augmented by robotics, AI analytics, predictive systems, exoskeleton-training, data-driven coaching. The sport still feels “human”, but with new layers of intelligence.

2. Robots/humanoids start to compete directly (or in parallel) with humans; sport becomes one arena of human-machine comparison; new leagues of “robot sport” become mainstream. Spectator value shifts.

Instance of Technology/Modded Athletes Becoming Mainstream

Invitation & Open Questions

As this blog’s community shows, you don’t have to be from the sporting world to contribute meaningfully to how sport evolves.

My ask to you: If you were an expert in your domain, and you turned your attention to sport – what would you ask? What would you try to change?

Some open questions:

• What happens to sport if predictive analytics accurately forecast outcomes with high confidence? Does suspense diminish?

• What happens to fans and the fan experience when machines perform at human-plus levels?

• What happens to access when the performance gap grows via technology?

• What happens to the essence of sport when machines are involved? Does the “human struggle” matter less?

Conclusion

We began by listing a cast of individuals: coaches, engineers, founders, doctors, analysts – people outside the conventional sport bubble. We asked: What happens when they turn their attention to sports?

You get change.

You get fresh questions, new metrics, novel modes of competition, shifting boundaries between human and machine, and evolved fan experiences.

And because you’re reading this, you might be one of those outsiders – or you might know someone who is. Maybe now is the moment to ask: What’s your question for sport?

Write me back,

Joel A.

Community-powered insights on sports

1.

Pins defenders with his hips

Here is Kane demonstrating how a striker can ‘pin’ a defender without getting into a shirt-tugging war.

IT’S IN THE HIPS. Observe when Kane’s meets Caicedo’s in this sequence - after the former’s completes the turn.

This means that whether or not Caicedo committed to this challenge, the Blue’s man would have still stumbled: Kane’ goal-facing forward momentum + Caicedo backpedaling + both hips connected.

You may see other strikers opt for the hand-on-opponents-chest-while-I-pivot move, which is also good.

But Kane’s move here maximizes the distance between him and the ball such that it teases marking defenders to lunge for the ‘gettable’ ball. He’s earned SO MANY fouls like this. Art, really.

2.

Comfortable taking one-time shots from passes into space

Harry Kane has many goals like this in his collection: curved run, no touch to set, shoots in his stride.

Because goalkeepers use the set-touch to narrow down angles and shot possibilities, strikers like Kane are a nightmare to face.

Kane thrives in these situations because he’s got a sharper sense for where the goalpost and possible shot openings are than most elite defenders.

Goalkeepers are already expected to constantly scan + log shot openings, but the few strikers and center-backs with this perception are very good and seem to ‘sniff’ shots.

Community-powered insights on sports

Introduction: A Case Study

A striker is through on goal. They've beaten the off‑side trap, have no defenders on their tail, and only the goalkeeper stands between them and the back of the net. Four common finish selections present themselves:

1. Dribble past the keeper and roll the ball into the net.

2. Shoot early to catch the keeper off‑guard.

3. Feign and nut‑meg the keeper.

4. Chip ('dink') the ball over the keeper.

Our striker chooses one of these options. And misses. It is not the first time. Viral highlight reels document a season of squandered one‑on‑ones.

As the recruitment executive of a Champions‑level club YOU receive a dossier from your analysts. Inside is a file labelled '1v1s' – a super‑cut of every clear one‑on‑one the striker has faced during the last three seasons.

The dossier forces a series of epistemic questions:

• What can we infer about this player's finishing ability?

• Is it reasonable to conclude they are generally poor in 1‑on‑1 situations?

• How strongly can we project their performance into a different league or tactical context?

• How certain can we be about any of the above?

• What additional information would increase or decrease that certainty?

This essay explores those questions and, more broadly, epistemic certainty in scouting and recruitment.

Epistemic vs Psychological Certainty

Epistemic Certainty

In analytic epistemology, epistemic certainty describes the strength of justification for believing a proposition is true. It is a function of evidence, logical coherence, methodological soundness, and the absence of defeaters.

Psychological Certainty

Psychological certainty is a feeling of conviction, which may or may not track epistemic warrant. A coach convinced a striker will 'come good' might possess high psychological certainty yet low epistemic warrant if the data say otherwise.

Two Analytical Frames for 1‑on‑1 Evaluation

There are two frames we can employ to attempt the aforementioned questions. (See footnotes for my earlier scraps about this.)

FrameWhat it looks atCore QuestionTypical ToolsFrame 1: Outcome‑based MechanicsObservable execution of the chosen technique (post‑hoc).“How did the attempt play out?”Video tagging, biomechanics breakdown, xG modelsFrame 2: Intention‑based Decision AnalysisUnderlying choice architecture that produced the attempt.“Why did the player choose that option?”Cognitive task analysis, VR replay & interview, eye‑tracking data, coach-player debriefs

Strengths & Weaknesses

Frame 1 maximizes measurability and thus epistemic certainty but abstracts away internal decision processes.

Frame 2 accesses intent, useful for coaching and player self‑reflection, but relies on inaccessible mental states, lowering epistemic warrant.

Choosing a Frame

For forecasting (transfer recruitment, salary negotiation) we prioritize verifiable, mechanically‑grounded evidence: Frame 1 becomes primary; Frame 2 remains complementary for player development programs.

Technique, Mechanics, and Decision‑Making

1. Technique (How): The specific motor pattern selected (e.g., inside‑foot placed finish).

2. Decision‑Making (Why): The rapid perceptual‑cognitive process that selects a technique given constraints.

3. Mechanics (What Happened): The physical outcome: ball trajectory, keeper reaction, result. This is a pivot from the usual frame I had previously published on this blog before.

Factors Modulating Epistemic Certainty

Back to the last two questions:

How certain can we be about any of the above?

What additional information would increase or decrease that certainty?

Here are some simple attempts at these:

Increases CertaintyDecreases CertaintyLarger sample size of 1‑on‑1sSmall sample (highlight bias)Contextual data (xG, shot location, goalkeeper positioning)Context change (new league tempo, defensive spacing)Multi‑season trend stabilityTactical system mismatchBiomechanical metrics (approach speed, body shape)Psychological volatility (confidence swings)Training data & coach testimonyIncomplete or low‑quality video

So, Should YOU Sign the Striker?

1. Aggregate Evidence: Three‑season 1v1 conversion rate vs (outgoing) league average.

2. Context Adjustment: Compare quality of chances (post‑shot xG).

3. Model Forecast: Bayesian update incorporating club tactical fit.

4. Residual Uncertainty: Highlight unknowns (injury history, adaptation to higher tempo).

Finally, provide a probability estimate rather than a binary verdict.

Epistemic Humility in Talent ID

Absolute certainty is unattainable: the goal is to bound uncertainty tightly enough that decisions are rational under risk.

Combining a mechanics‑first frame with selective insights from intention analysis provides the highest defensible warrant when millions - and trophies and jobs - are at stake.

Related essay:

Justified True Belief

Related thread (where this essay spawned from):

Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Community-powered insights on sports

November 4th, 2024, Daudi queries.

The Matter at Hand

A team's performance is lacking and one player is underperforming. What reliable metrics can we use to assess this performance? Beyond results-based analysis which, in certain cases does offer us some insight, is there a more accurate approach to understanding sports performance?

Statistics could be useful, but they often lack important context and may not provide all actionable insights.

Perhaps we should trust our eyes and strive for qualitative discernment. However, can our feeble minds truly grasp our memories over time? Will we retain sufficient information for accurate assessments? What comes next?

How do we determine which team played better?

My Two Cents

Football teams establish strategic long-term and short-term goals both on and off the pitch. They then implement a methodology to ensure these goals are consistently achieved. That involves focusing on recruitment, market control, coordinated operations, effective communication, and appropriate remuneration to attain greater success.

That considered, when two teams match against each other the primary aim is to:

• maximize theirs and minimize the opposition's strengths

• mask theirs and exploit the opposition's weaknesses

Coaches guided by principles within their game models use their expertise to devise tactics. A collection of these tactics constitutes a game plan, all aimed at achieving the primary objectives outlined above.

Yet, football revolves around efficacy and efficiency – performing tasks optimally and minimizing wastage.

Simply, what works in its process and yields is the better.

December 5th, 2024. Only a month after was I able to crack this query.

This poses another problem. Think of it, have you ever asked yourself:

• What is team X trying to achieve?

• Why have they chosen this particular method?

• Is this strategy sustainable against the best teams?

For professionals, these challenging questions are the essence of their work: they need to draw inferences from complex situations.

For others, merely deciphering the intent behind a team's week of work is grand. Oftentimes, we neither have the tools nor the info. Insiders hold immensely valuable data points we cannot fathom. And they hold them in abundance.

We only have the 90 minutes we see players on the pitch, (pre & post) match player and coach interviews, minutes of recorded training sessions, documentaries and those of the likes as data points. And can only try to understand through patched inferences.

Here's the challenge; how can we decipher a team's objectives from the little data available to us?

Reverse Engineering in Sports

Scattered cues. Scattered clues. Sports performance analysis requires meticulousness, that is the method through which we acquire knowledge of the supposed intent behind the performance we have seen on matchday. Then, we assess proficiency of execution. Intent and execution are the two metrics from which we solve this conundrum.

Reverse-Engineering: How Players and Teams Poke Football’s Margins

What Next?

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz, following us on Twitter, and sharing this with someone.

Join us to stay ahead and contribute to the community.

Written By

Luqman A. Kabange a Clinical Medicine student at the Kibaha College Of Health and Allied Sciences (KCOHAS) in Pwani, Tanzania.

I could start this essay with a links and screenshots of all the nasty things that have been written or said about McTominay in the past couple years, but that wouldn't be fun, would it?

Instead, we'll make this very simple.

My name if Joel A. Adejola, and I was rather confident that Napoli's Scott McTominay was going to rip up the Serie A, just as he had been dominating the boxes in last 18 months at Manchester United.

If the last part of this sentence made you wince, as in 'This writer crazy?' this simple list is for you. So, here are 10 reasons most people got McTominay so wrong and what you can learn from it.

1.

You don't know how to evaluate athleticism or, worse, don't consider it enough when making judgments on players.

How to Classify Running Capacity among Elite Players

2.

You don't pay enough attention to what coaches and players say about other players.

Non-Trivial Scouting Cues

3.

You think that the game is won somewhere other than the 18 yard boxes.

Consolidating Aerials and The ‘Aerial Duel’ Stat in Football

4.

You believe that professional athletes fluke their way into getting 200+ appearances for one of the most notable clubs in the world.

Reverse-Engineering: How Players and Teams Poke Football’s Margins

5.

You ignore the obvious fact that coaches select players off their performances in training.

What Should We Expect from Head Coaches?

6.

You underrate the value of a player who offers a distinct amount of features reliably.

Why Focusing on Strengths Leads to Better Scouting Outcomes

7.

You don't understand how difficult it is to score goals.

Liverpool, Goals from Opposition Corners, and Arne Slot

8.

You don't appreciate players who know how to score goals.

Precision Play: Features of a Great Sho(o)t(er)

9.

You allow yourself to be subsumed by the narratives in the media.

Player Development Curriculums Need Digital Sieves

10.

You watch sports like you watch TikTok.

Reflection as a Scouting Optimizer

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz and sharing this with someone.

Community-powered insights on sports

This essay was first drafted on the 24th of November, 2024 after Arsenal's 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Over the past few months, I spent some time away from football, spared from its chaos and relationships, which were built on a shared appreciation for the game.

I was troubled that I seemed to have an answer, opinion, or resolution to most issues relevant to me at that time: why Manchester United wasn't doing well; why a certain manager would get sacked; why a certain dynamic wasn't working; why another commentator was doing it all wrong; which player was more valuable to a team.

It made me consider whether any of my calls – and more broadly, the community's – were truly consequential. Here are some questions I pondered:

• How precisely can we make predictions about sporting events?

• What scale of predictions allows us the most precision?

  • A team will win the league because...

  • A team will lose a game because...

  • A player will score in this game because...

• If we cannot make precise calls, does that even matter?

So, some weeks ago, when Arsenal won on Ødegaard's return and broke their non-winning streak, my thoughts raced to one of the few football newsletters I'd allowed myself, The Transfer Flow Newsletter – and Kim McCauley's earlier newsletter about Ødegaard probably being '[Arsenal's] most important player'. Kim might've been onto something: I mean look at their eventual result against then competitive Nottingham Forest.

However, my current obsession is less about whether Ødegaard is or isn't Arsenal's most important player, but whether we can even ascertain that or any other discrete truth about sports. This essay is a prologue.

What next?

We'll talk about Ødegaard, but only after considering this something called Justified True Belief (JTB).

Here's a summary from James Somers' essay:

Epistemologists going back to the Greeks had debated what it meant to know something, and in the Enlightenment, a definition was settled upon: to know something is to have a justified true belief about it:

justified in the sense of deriving from evidence

true, because it doesn't make sense to "know" a falsehoood

belief, i.e., a proposition in your head

[Edmund] Gettier, in his tiny paper, upended the consensus. He asked "Is Justified True Belief Knowledge?" and offered three cases—soon to be known as "the Gettier cases"—that suggested you could have a JTB about something and yet still we would want to say you didn't know it.

Under this framework, to claim knowledge about 'Ødegaard being Arsenal's most important player,' we may need these three elements:

• Belief – Ødegaard is Arsenal's most important player.

• Justified – perhaps that Arsenal underperformed in games where Ødegaard did not feature AND that Arsenal underperformance was more prominent in games Ødegaard didn't feature compared to games where other players didn't feature.

• True – perhaps a single, repeatable event like Arsenal's performance getting restored every time Ødegaard returned to the side.

The effort and analysis needed to synthesize this is difficult, murky and, some would argue, unnecessary.

However, sports culture demands that we – even if privately – frequently stake claims of knowledge. So how do we respond? We resort to easier, more discrete, and often epistemically weaker resolutions. Here's one:

• Belief – Ødegaard is Arsenal's most important player.

• Justified – During a run where Ødegaard did not feature, Arsenal did not win most games.

• True – Arsenal win in Ødegaard's first game back.

So, what can we know?

I do believe there are simpler truths in sports.

Here's one: Any coach puts out a team they believe can win the game.

Here's why it's not so simple: Certain situations demand a coach to consider longer-term goals, player development, and politics when selecting the team.

Even without these exceptions, are we any better equipped to reliably and more precisely predict outcomes in sports? I don't know, but it is clearly an important and expensive consideration.

Recruitment. Outcomes of games. Trends in optimal strategy.

Here we are

This is the pocket of problems that is capturing all my attention in sports – and why I haven't been able to watch games as much as I previously did.

It's been fun; we have some ideas about how to pick it apart, so stay tuned.

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz and sharing this with someone.

Community-powered insights on sports

New Beginnings: Luqman A. Kabange

Excerpt from essay above.

"I believe in using life as a derivative for principles to apply in football. Football helps me refine what little experiences I've had in life; the lessons are then broadened to a scope that allows complete immersion in both football and life."

In this essay, I adopt principles attained from learning operational research in college to explain how true football analysis should be.

Note: For new readers, I study medicine. Hence, the concepts I have acquired from college, which will be used in this essay, are applied from that domain.

Before we begin, consider this tweet where I state the main thought behind this essay:

Keeping in mind the statement given above. Within it we consider two aspects:

1st: Operational research

I enlist some forms of analytical research studies correlating with football analysis. These forms describe the how and the why as that is the main aim of any analytical process.

Case (oriented) studies: in operational research these deal with single personal cases. Ideally, they intend to provide a better view on a single peculiar medical condition by focusing completely on it alone.

• In football: we find that the same is done during individual player scouting reports. The process behind is a detailed elaboration of the player. When concluded it should be able to give thorough information on the player.

Cross sectional studies: in operational research these involve examining a sample of a large population to establish how many times something occurs within the sample. It aims to establish the prevalence of a medical condition.

• In football: we might analyze frequency of recurring actions to know what portion of the chosen sample (number of teams or matches or players or leagues etc) is affected. Think of a league-to-league comparison of competitiveness in a continent.

Cohort studies: a prospective or retrospective study from which two samples from the population, one that is exposed to a risk factor and another that is not, are compared. The aim is to establish whether or not there is a significant relationship between a medical condition and a risk factor.

• In football: to establish the causes and modality of actions pertaining to a problem is among the major reasons for analysis in football. This is the same as when conducting cohort studies. Think an opposition analysis report explaining their strengths and weaknesses.

Billy Carpenter employs a cohort correlative approach to analyze Manchester City's current woes.

2nd: Relative part

Here, I argue a connection between football and non-football phenomena.

Indigenous here insinuates on phenomena originating from within football. It aims to establish the required base upon which a relationship between football and non-football phenomena can be formed and in turn derives correlative principles from one to be used in the other.

To every and any research or analysis process there is a qualitative and quantitative side both of which coincide and hold importance depending on the required outcome(s).

Inferential validity in football

Analysis is a process. To any process, there is a conclusion. A result. An outcome extracted from inferences obtained after analyzing data. And to every conclusion, there should be validation. Only then can we truly measure effectiveness.

To establish relationships, we measure variables.

Manipulation on independent/causal variables showcases a (most of the time) desired outcome on dependent/effect variables.

A valid inference is actionable, topic-centric, relevant, specific, clear and focused.

Please forgive the nerdy medicine blabber but it was essential to align in the same eye view as mine. Now let's get to the good, interesting and most important part of this essay.

What should we learn from this?

1. In an earlier piece, Joel writes:

Effective scouting (analysis) should yield predictions or prescribe solutions, not just describe.

This means:

• That analysis goes much beyond description.

• That description is the floor from which an analyst draws inferences. Proper description is expected to ignite a proper analysis process.

• Though, description is not analysis, it is a pre-requisite.

• Asking the question what neither yields predictions nor prescribes solutions. It provides a description.

2. Analysis is a product of many, multi-faceted, processes that build up to a whole. It is complex.

• This complexity is the essence of analysis. It is essential for unraveling layer by layer of information.

• This complexity allows us multiple problem-solving props.

• The game is complex in itself, to navigate, employing a tool of the same essence is pertinent.

• Complexity offers specificity and allows us to focus on the broader perspective.

3. Analysis offers clarity.

• The state of mind where everything is plain and organized. At professional level that is one of if not the most important.

• Clarity is guidance – whether intrinsic or extrinsic.

4. Analysis enables improvement through continuous assessment, solving and projecting problems.

• Analysis is one way to stay ahead of the curve and continuously poke football's margins before they are at hand.

• Its course offers refinement of the person and the problem.

• Analysis enables adaptation and evolution, both of which are crucial for sustenance in the game.

5. Analysis is cyclic and in that meaning both prospective and retrospective.

• It probes the past. From it, it obtains modifiable sets of information and applies in the present.

• It probes the future and in so alarming for preparedness.

• Never disregard any analytical data, no matter the source. The cyclic nature of analysis ensures any information will come in handy.

What Next?

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz, following us on Twitter, and sharing this with someone.

Join us to stay ahead and contribute to the community.

Who is the writer?

Luqman A. Kabange is a college student at Kibaha College Of Health And Allied Sciences. Pwani, Tanzania where he studies Clinical Medicine.

Community-powered insight on strategy, scouting, and mechanics

A while back, the founder of this blog designated a spot for a new talented poaster to exist within this formidable burgeoning community. I auditioned. The result is that now I am at the mortuary drafting my first ever piece on BallerzBantz. There's nothing bad going on, I'm only at the mortuary because the quietness here is best for writing. It's still creepy though.

With this post I present myself to this community.

Who am I?

I'm but a random boy from Tanzania. Born to a lecturer and a secondary school teacher. Now studying clinical medicine at Kibaha College Of Health And Allied Sciences.

With regards to football, I was an enthusiast. Bound to the game by way of blood, the same blood coursing through the veins of my family. Ounce by ounce every bit of it was and is still cursed with the burden to uphold family rituals including love for the game. This enthusiasm was held up until I met one of the smartest people I know in Tanzanian football, George Ambangile.

The beginning.

George offered me the needed inspiration to smartly embark on the journey towards football professionalism. At that time, it was mainly analysis and description after football matches. Through his great work on mainstream media, I spiked higher aspirations.

From an average fan, I developed the need to delve deeper and acquire more indulging, extensive and applicable knowledge of the game. This prompted the search for reliable learning sources; social media posts, video contents, blog posts were all taken into consideration and have played a great part in shaping me into who I am today.

I veered away from mere enthusiasm for the game as it was not enough to quench the wild thirst within. Description and analysis were too vulgar for my liking. Football in my eyes was much deeper and condensed to exist in such a shallow form. I wanted more.

The quest led me here. At one of the best football blogs. At BallerzBantz.

Why am I here?

Simply put the main reason is alignment. I had ambitions to one day join the host in producing similar quality content. The simple auditioning process suggested, at least in my head, that I was a fit for the spot thus I auditioned. Luckily, the host saw the potential within this average boy from East Africa. For that, many thanks to him.

Here's a more detailed overview...

1. I joined for the existing similarities and alignment in between: from former posts; the thought process, approach, base principles and tone seemed somewhat similar to mine.

2. I joined for apprehensiveness: first for my own thoughts, through brainstorming and sharing to an audience I believe is capable to consume and formulate inferences from what I produce. In turn, making me better. Secondly, I wanted to be on the other side of this learning curve.

3. I joined for a stage: this blog provides a surface for me to tease and play with hypotheses. Through this blog I get to test, refine, re-assess and tune ideas. Acquisition of newly proved hypotheses, now raw truths, allows me to apply methods and principles in football and other domains. Hopefully the same will be for the readers.

4. This blog is an archive: it offers a curated method to store and if needed retrieve any formerly formed conclusions. Our penny little minds are too weak to grasp and remember every thought. Writing and archiving to get better is the solution.

The baseline.

Football is but a part of life. For most, a simple recreational part of it. With this thought in mind, I employ an approach to solving both life and football.

The host has previously advocated on successful immersion in one domain to derive principles that can be used to govern life. I, while alluding to this belief, propose a new, perhaps a bit complex version of this belief.

I believe in using life as a derivative for principles to apply in football. Football helps me refine what little experiences I've had in life; the lessons are then broadened to a scope that allows complete immersion in both football and life.

This is the core main theory in practice right now.

Why BallerzBantz?

Well, I have no particular valid reasons. This is mainly sentimental. I like this blog. I like the host. So here I am, ready to learn, unlearn and share with anyone out there.

It might seem stupid to be sentimental, but I am human, and I prefer for it to stay that way. I want to feel what I feel. So, I encourage sentiment.

How do I see my future?

As of now, description and analysis are a very minor part of my football life, I do it for entertainment. My goals as of now:

(i) Know more than I already know, keep grinding, sourcing, reading then rinse and repeat.

(ii) Get to know and learn from some of the best people in the industry.

(iii) Share what I learn with football folk around the globe.

(iv) Acquire an expertise in the process: this seems to get altered as days go by. Still not certain but I am close.

(v) Apply life principles to better understand both life and football.

(vi) Enumerate core individual principles along the way.

(vii) Get better every day: this is why I started and keep on writing about football.

(viii) Improve football around the continent: bridge the gap between African football and football at the highest level. This is the main grand long-term goal.

What to expect?

Here I will uphold and stamp what the blog has been about since its introduction. Only that this will be in my voice. What I write will be my thoughts. I will constantly reference, dispute and sometimes even condemn previous posts on the blog because as I said this will be me, non-affiliated with the past. In this tenure, I will try my best to keep producing relevant quality work for the audience. Support is highly appreciated, in any form, whether a reply, a question or an email.

What next?

If you enjoyed this consider subscribing, following us and our writers on twitter and contributing to this burgeoning community.

My friends say I have an awful form when I shoot a basketball. They are right: I make 1 shot out of every 20 attempts. Something about how I execute jump shots, which is my go-to move, renders all my attempts off the mark.

In this brief description, three layers exist :

• a quantifiable action - making a basket or not

• technique - a jump shot

• mechanics - why a certain jump shot works (or doesn't)

Now that we have this understanding in place, let's see how it applies in football, where similar principles of mechanics, technique, and actions determine success.

1. Footballers perform quantifiable actions – like running, scoring, or winning a header or passing the ball; we have stats for sprint speed and distance covered, goals scored and expected goals, headers won, and passes completed respectively. Actions tell us what a player does and with what frequency.

2. While completing these same actions, footballers tend to different techniques to execute. For a specific goal-scoring opportunity, one player might opt to drill the ball, another might finesse/curl it to the far post, another might toe-poke it, another side foot. Technique tells us how a player tries to completes an action.

3. Within these techniques, different players, by their training (or lack of), physical makeup, or habits execute them differently. This difference in execution is mechanics: why a particular technique works or doesn't.

While technique can be adapted to fit different teams and styles, such as a defensive setup requiring more headed clearances or an attacking team demanding fast-trigger shooting, mechanics are grounded in an athlete's unique physical makeup and training. This makes mechanics a more stable and reliable factor when players transition between environments.

Techniques may vary depending on the tactical demands, but mechanics allow us to consistently assess what kind of techniques — like different finishes — a player can perform and how well they can execute them under varying conditions.

This essay will argue that mechanics is the single most important predictor of skill transfer between footballing environments – and suggests a roadmap to understanding it.

[Introduction sparked by Guillaume (@guillaumevdwege), a coach who publishes essays on Substack]

Related essays:

How to Classify Running Capacity among Elite Players

Suggests a framework to classify a player's running capacity

Precision Play: Features of a Great Sho(o)t(er)

Discusses frameworks to assess a player's capacity to shoot the football

Why Mechanics, and not Technique?

First, a word of note that while this is a football blog, the issues we attack and solutions we derive are often universally applicable. Everything is connected under the sun.

To start us off, let's first listen to how either terms are used in other domains. This one in music:

Finally, within professional spaces in sports, you won’t hear experts proclaim that an athlete is ‘not technical enough’ — even less so in scouting/recruitment.

They critique & suggest improvements to specific mechanics — rarely a broad 1 or 0 categorization of technique. pic.twitter.com/y0RWFORXyl

— Joel A. A. (@JoelAdejola) June 9, 2023

Technique is all-encompassing: it includes both the physical execution and the mental processing required to perform a skill under pressure. Mechanics, on the other hand, are more narrowly focused—they're the visible, physical movements or the 'physics' behind how that skill is performed.

Mechanics require a deeper understanding of optimal motion, biophysics, coaching, and also an understanding of what a player's body can and cannot do. It is also what determines the efficiency with which a player can perform. Mechanics, in contrast to technique, are not about what a player is doing but rather how they are doing it, and to what degree of repeatability or success.

Technique is the selection and self-trust to followthrough – even under pressure.

Mechanics is the execution.

Mechanics tells us why certain techniques succeed or fail under pressure.

• Mechanics tells us why Haaland can strike the ball so hard.

• Mechanics tells us why Robben could bend those balls round the corner.

• Mechanics tells us why Pogba could stiff arm his way out of pressure.

• Mechanics tells us why Antony can never seem to get power on his shots.

• Mechanics tells us why Garnacho often gets tipped over while he's sprinting.

• Mechanics tells us why Rashford is rarely competitive in aerial contests.

Action tells us what. Technique tells us how. Mechanics tell us why.

Mechanics allows us forecast future performance. They prompt important questions, such as:

• A player is scoring now, but do their shooting mechanics suggest they can continue scoring in a different setting or under different conditions?

• A player isn’t scoring currently. Do their mechanics indicate that they could start scoring if placed in a new environment or system?

Antony is one whose shooting mechanics haven't fared well after moving to a tougher league.

In any sport, we probe an athlete's physical range (athleticism and body proportions) because it determines what range of motions are feasible. A tall and strong player will contest. A flexible player will weave. When we intersect these with a player's perception-action facilities, we arrive at a smaller sample of consistently executable actions. I've found this to be the fundamental of scouting in any sport.

Developing A Framework to Assess and Fine-Tune Dribbling in Football

Roadmap To Understanding Mechanics

The Science

The study of football mechanics is deeply rooted in the principles of biophysics and sports science. These disciplines provide the foundational knowledge that explains how and why physical actions produce certain outcomes. For instance, biophysicists analyze the forces involved in shooting a football, helping us understand what makes some shots more effective than others.

Applying Mechanics for Role-Specific Success

"Coaches exist to support or direct an athlete through this self-discovery journey – hence why ex-pros typically, sometimes unfairly, get first dibs to coach elite players." – from There are No Superstars Left

The practical application of this scientific knowledge is, in turn, valuable for players and the coaches who support them through their journey.

• Player Role Optimization: Understanding the mechanics behind actions like shooting and receiving the ball helps tailor training to enhance a player's role-specific skills. This insight is crucial for coaches to optimize each player’s contributions to the team.

Coaches (should) take a stepwise approach to improving mechanics, starting by making the player AWARE of the inefficiency in their movements.

From there, they show ADJUSTMENTS that not only fix the issue but align with the player’s broader skill set.

To ensure these changes stick, they design drills that REINFORCE the new behaviors, all while offering consistent FEEDBACK to help the player internalize the new mechanics.

This stepwise improvement process is one reason why we saw teams like Brighton perform certain technical feats that appeared highly sophisticated — like players using their studs for close control.

Did it mean Brighton had the most technically gifted players in the league? Not necessarily. 

It meant that Roberto De Zerbi inculcated specific mechanics into his team and had players with the right mental profiles to suit his game.

[Section extracted from June 9, 2023 Archive]

The Target: Developing Sound Athletes

Physical development coaches take this scientific and applied knowledge to the next level by focusing on training athletes to execute these actions more effectively:

• Specialized Training: The role of physical development coaches is to translate scientific insights into training regimens that build the necessary muscle functions and improve kinematic execution for specific sports actions. This involves tailored exercises that enhance players’ physical capabilities to perform desired actions.

Here's a quote by Des Ryan, Arsenal's former Head of Academy Sports Medicine and Athletic Development, from Training Ground Guru:

The approach to athletic development is important and should be crystal clear ... The thought there was the club wants these players to be ready as soon as possible, because there are lots of demands coming down the road, so the arrow is about getting them ready quickly and efficiently.

"If you want to run properly you have to have the right flexibility, mobility, range of motion to get in those powerful positions. We nail that first with corrective exercises. Next one is movement skills - they have to learn how to use that new range of motion, extra strength in the right way."

Analytical Value

For analysts, commentators, and fans, understanding the 'why' behind player actions offers the most immediate, yet simple, insights.

By understanding why certain actions — like a feint, a double shimmy, or a particular shooting technique — succeed or fail, analysts can offer more nuanced commentary that goes beyond surface-level observations.

The first example that comes to mind is Asmir's Begovic recent rant about the "you should not beaten at your near post" trope, which all commentators – including myself seem to love.

Have a listen:

Again, Why does any of this matter?

Skepticism.

Mechanics allows football professionals to be skeptics on another dimension.

A scout looking at a striker may see impressive stats but still question whether their mechanics will hold up in a faster-paced league.

Mechanics offer insights that raw stats can't, helping predict how well a player will adapt to different environments.

One simple truth we know is that powerful shots are more likely to beat a goalie than weak shots. A player's shooting mechanics determine whether they can reliably generate those powerful shots, offering an advantage that translates across different game settings.

Mechanics afford us simple truths.

From the Archives:

What Next?

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz, following us on Twitter, and sharing this with someone.

Join us to stay ahead and contribute to the community.

Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

A decade ago, football teams could manage with midfielders who couldn't consistently sprint quarter to half-pitch lengths every other possession.

However, the game has changed, and pressing schemes used by elite clubs has raised the running demands of players:

1. Most teams now split their lines during the press: at the opponent's box and the halfway line.

2. Midfield spaces have become larger, making the roles of midfielders more crucial in compacting these areas.

3. Running demands, especially among non-forwards, have increased.

If you are still unconvinced, take it from Liverpool coach Arne Slot. After his side's 3-0 victory over Manchester United at the start of the month, he said this:

'You need midfielders that can run. We had three of them that kept on running and, if they arrived in a duel, they were aggressive enough to win it.'

Given the clear importance of identifying and recruiting players with an edge in their running ability, we are tasked with understanding – beyond sprint-speed numbers and bleep tests – how to qualitatively categorize running capacity in modern football.

This essay will propose one framework.

But, every professional footballer runs?

This is true.

But, can every professional footballer execute 20 do-or-die sprints across the 90 minutes to prevent the opposition from counter-attacking after breaking through a high-press?

No.

So, given the context, might we say certain players can't run?

Yes.

So, for the sake of this essay, we will specify a definition of can, so the framework reads simpler.

Can [in this framework]:

• Indicating something that is typically the case

• Not an absolute ability, but a consistent capability

A Running Capacity Framework

'You need midfielders that can run. We had three of them that kept on running and, if they arrived in a duel, they were aggressive enough to win it.'

We propose the following classification:

1. Players who can't run: unable to consistently perform high-intensity sprints throughout a match.

2. Players who can run: able to execute multiple high-intensity sprints during a game.

3. Players who can run and cover: capable of running and effectively covering significant portions of the pitch.

4. Players who can run and maintain aggression: can sprint repeatedly and still maintain aggression in subsequent duels or actions.

[sparked by @SebC__, a coach who publishes long-reads on Substack]

From the archives:

What Next?

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz, following us on Twitter, and sharing this with someone.

Join us to stay ahead and contribute to the community.

Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

"There are no more movie stars.

There's no more glamour.

Even the Oscars used to be so fun."

– Jennifer Aniston for Allure

It's the layers.

The online buzz around each game, the pre-match leaks, fantasy football, the increasingly frequent, almost reality TV-like games, the plethora of content that follows, the pseudo rage and weaponized optimism after any result – and the algorithms that peddle them.

Beneath, choked by these superficial layers, lie the footballer, the person, the professional athlete we should really know, yesteryear's superstar.

For most, players are mere entertainment. Run around. Kick some balls. Help win arguments with friends. Earn them gambling bucks. Allow them pack new cards on FUT. [If you don't know what this means, good].

For us, for you the reader, for the hungry, it is crucial that we sieve through this dense, clouding web and make out players to be the professional athletes and people they really are:

• Those who make a livelihood from leveraging genetics, training, and optimizing their body.

• Those who suffer in the gym while we work relatively sedentary jobs.

• Those who are, by large, competitive and at the top 0.01% of their profession.

Otherwise, the footballer devolves in our eyes, and our assessment and perception of them worsens.

They became just objects to muse at. Nothing else.

How then do we reclaim the true essence of football superstars?

We start by remembering what actually makes them super.

Athletes are platformed by athleticism and their appreciation of it: which sport they commit to, the techniques they adopt while competing, how they train, the degree to which they push themselves.

Coaches exist to support or direct an athlete through this self-discovery journey – hence why ex-pros typically, sometimes unfairly, get first dibs to coach elite players.

Scouts exist to scope an athlete's current athletic base, the athlete's understanding of it, and to predict whether, at peak or within a prescribed time-frame, the athlete will attain an understanding sufficient to contribute to the club's priorities.

Analysts (should) exist to filter the numbers, footage, precedent, or opponents to support coaches or scouts to make calls about a player's self-discovery journey.

Football players are athletes.

So, strip away the layers. Mute the noise. Dim the spotlight.

What remains isn't a social media sensation, a fantasy football asset, or tabloid fodder.

It's a person pushing physical limits, honing skills religiously, competing fiercely.

It's an athlete. A true superstar.

What Next?

If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to BallerzBantz, following us on Twitter, and sharing this with someone.

Join us to stay ahead and contribute to the community.

Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

Joel on Sekou Kone

It easy to call a player good. Anyone can do that. In fact, depending on your definition of good one might argue that every professional player is good.

It is not easy to tell in which environment or when a player's goodness will manifest. This is where the coaches, scouts, and recruitment specialists earn their buck.

So, like any wannabe shrewd operator, I have spent most of my active football-time assessing my processes and publishing findings on BallerzBantz. For myself. For my audience. And, crucially, to make sense of the senselessness.

Fortunately, we have another opportunity today. Sékou Koné has joined Manchester United. 9 months ago, I saw a few tapes on him, made a snap-judgment, and shared it on my account. This essay will discuss how I arrived at the take, imply why time-locked projections are valuable, and expose faults in my process.

Background

In one essay from May, Avoiding the Description Trap when Scouting (or Analyzing), I write:

Similarly, when curating scouting reports, it is easy to get bogged down with descriptions (what is a player doing) and not prescription (what could a player do). The former, I find, misses the core actionable part of any informative report. Here are four questions that assist us:

• What are they capable of doing – not what we see them doing?

  • Instead of merely cataloging a player's actions, effective scouting probes deeper: What are they capable of doing under different conditions?

• How well can they do it?

  • How well a player executes their skills is as important as what they execute. Quality assessment involves analyzing the efficiency, effectiveness, and consistency of a player's actions.

• Can we benchmark it against any archived setting?

  • By comparing a player's abilities and performances against archived examples — whether past players, previous seasons, or different environments — we gain perspective on their potential trajectory and contextual performance.

• Where is the ideal environment?

Avoiding the Description Trap when Scouting (or Analyzing)

Examining my Snap-Take on Sékou Koné

• What are they capable of doing – not what we see them doing?

  • Snap take from November '23: "Engine. Commands opp. & possession with his body (esp. on ball reception). Agile: claw-like interventions with his long legs. Level-headed in duels. His 1st-time release is crisp. Scuffs it with more (pre)touches."

  • Engine: Sékou covered ground well – at the very least, better than the average midfielder in these tournaments.

  • Commands opp. & possession with his body (esp. on ball reception): Sékou demonstrated strong intuition of space and pressure especially when receiving the bal: shimmies to evade pressure, side-steps to throw opponents off, and flops to win fouls from unsuspecting tacklers.

    • Not only did he do these things often, he processed and executed them quickly.

  • Agile: claw-like interventions with his long legs: Sékou is a leggy player. He's built for the floor sprawls and quick lateral shunts that define today's midfield pressers and protectors. He also displayed a knack for poking his leg into improbable spots to win the ball back. Went to ground and got up quickly.

  • Level-headed in duels: Despite his processing speed and physique, Sékou tackles and duels retained a dose of composure. He regularly sprinted into tough challenges but remained focused on the ball and/or disrupting his opponent's flow.

  • His 1st-time release is crisp. Scuffs it with more (pre)touches: Sékou was willing to attempt and completed many difficult first-time passes. That he attempted, alone, is a good sign – evidence of a sharp operator and a player who spots pockets to penetrate. However, with more touches on the ball, Sékou seemed to get lost in possibilities and took looser, steal-able touches.

• How well can they do it?

  • Answered above and below

• Can we benchmark it against any archived setting?

  • Sékou played at the U-17 African Cup of Nations. This competition is, at that age group, the pinnacle of competitive football on the continent. Mali finish 4th.

  • Sékou played at the U-17 World Cup. This competition is, at that age group, the pinnacle of competitive football in the world. Mali finish 3rd.

  • While Sékou and other young would have been scouted and followed beforehand, these tournaments allow scouts to juxtapose the player's profile against tougher, matched opposition. Furthermore, there's precedent that good performers go on to have relatively successful professional careers.

  • In More Non-Trivial Scouting Cues, I write:

    • At smaller clubs, where the competitive gap might be wider and the stakes lower, scouts might need to observe a broader range of performance over a longer period. This helps ensure that the player’s skills are competitive and transferable to higher levels. Here, a larger sample size and a broader range of performance metrics provide a more reliable basis for projecting a player's potential.

• Where is the ideal environment?

  • Snap take from November '23: "I say game scales within ~12+ months if he moves in Jan. : acclimatization + work with optimizing his touches — the bigger clubs are seemingly willing to pay premium for this profile: ground coverage + good in open-space isolations."

    • Everything you read before this subheading factored into my projection: Mali's team was great, World Cup and African Cup of Nations experience, Sékou could play the full 90, his teammates trusted him in difficult situations.

    • Yet, the final, major indicator that Sékou was competitive for a big move was that his profile solved problems faced by the elite, UEFA Champions League-vying institutions.

      • Whereas assurance in possession had been, for many years, a sufficient marker for these clubs, today's meta has increasingly rewarded teams with athletes who:

        • can contest deep, wide recovery duels.

        • can make several quarter-to-half pitch sprints across the 90.

        • are quick off the jockey.

      • Think Aston Villa's Amadou Onana. Arsenal's Declan Rice. Manchester City's Mattheus Nunes.

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

Ange Postecoglou’s comments after signing Dominic Solanke offer us a clue into the holistic processes guiding elite scouting and recruitment; this essay will examine his words and attempt to uncover some of these underlying principles.

'There’s no secret we love to press and he’s got a great work ethic AND he scores goals.'

Postecoglou emphasizes the dual demands placed on modern forwards.

It’s not enough for a center forward to merely possess technical skill or to be a physical presence. The base expectation is for them to be a complete player, capable of both contributing defensively through pressing and being decisive in the final third. In this case, Solanke’s ability to meet both criteria makes him an ideal fit for a system that values high-intensity play.

It seems trivial to state, but this highlights a broader trend in football where versatility and productivity are now deemed essential to a player’s value – across all positions.

‘He is a presence and scores different types of goals.’

Here, Postecoglou touches on two crucial aspects of Solanke’s game: his presence on the field and his ability to score a variety of goals.

First, a forward who serves as a reference point for the team provides a reliable outlet for attacks and a focal point for opposition defenses, which creates space and opportunities for teammates.

Moreover, the ability to score different types of goals — whether from headers, tap-ins, or long-range strikes — indicates a well-rounded skill set. This versatility in finishing makes Solanke a constant threat, adaptable to various in-game scenarios and defensive setups.

In an earlier piece – Precision Play: Features of a Great Sho(o)t(er) – we, like Ange, also argue that range is one trait that typifies great goal scorers:

• How many different ways can they create separation for a shot.

• How many different areas and situations do they manufacture shots from

  • What's their proficiency in each one?

• How many different shooting techniques do they have in their arsenal.

Precision Play: Features of a Great Sho(o)t(er)

‘I think the way we play suits him and I really liked where he was in his career.’

Tactical compatibility. Naturally, elite players struggle if their strengths don’t align with the team’s approach. By recognizing that Solanke’s style suits Tottenham’s system, Postecoglou is positing that the player’s integration into the team will be seamless.

Clubs often get swept up in the pursuit of young, unproven talents, but, in this case, Postecoglou’s decision to sign Solanke who turns 27 in September reflects an appreciation for players who have faced adversity and emerged stronger, ready to contribute immediately.

See more below.

‘I am a big one on understanding the person, the person's motivation and he was obviously an outstanding young player. He got to some big clubs, but it never worked out for him and it’s what you do in that scenario.’

Character and resilience. Beyond abilities on the pitch, he values the mental toughness and perseverance of a player — their ability to face setbacks and still push forward. Postecoglou recognizes that players who have been through such experiences often emerge with a stronger mindset, better equipped to handle the pressures of top-flight football.

‘Do you think 'it’ll never happen for me' or do you work your way back and he’s done remarkably well to get himself [scoring] 19 goals in the PL. I love that aspect because I know he has the right sort of mentality.’

Again, Postecoglou admires Solanke’s mental resilience.

Scoring 19 goals in the Premier League is no small feat, especially for a player who had to rebuild his career after early setbacks. This accomplishment not only showcases Solanke’s quality as a forward but also his determination to succeed. For Postecoglou, this mentality is crucial — he wants players who are not only skilled but also mentally robust, capable of contributing to the team’s success under pressure.

‘It was a whole range of things that meant I was really keen to bring him in.’

This remark captures the complexity of modern recruitment.

Identifying a good player is just one part of the process; the real challenge lies in finding someone who fits the team’s needs on multiple levels: tactically, mentally, and physically.

‘Sometimes these things are about timing and I thought it was a good time for him [and] for us to bring him in because we have a really young group.’

Finally, Postecoglou touches on the importance of timing in transfers. The decision to bring in Solanke was not only about the player’s readiness but also about the needs of the team. With a young squad, having a forward who has already proven himself in the Premier League adds a layer of experience and reliability. Solanke’s timing in his career aligns with Tottenham’s needs, making the transfer a mutually beneficial move.

Archive from August 19th

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

Competitive football teams generally score more goals, more often than their opponents. Because goal margins in this sport are largely small, these teams often find their edge producing goals from a wide range of situations (non-exhaustive list):

• Pressing and Counter-pressing

• Dead-balls

• Counter-attacks

• Buildup

In Liverpool, though, we see how elite teams capture unconventional edges, not mentioned above, to break the game open and establish their superiority. Here is a goal from their recent game against Brentford, a team notorious for being meticulous at set-pieces:

My thoughts:

My cursorily assumption is that not many, if any, elite, European team scores as many goals off opposition corners as Liverpool do. To my approximation, they seem to score, at least, a couple of these every season.

Which begs the question, why are they so proficient in these situation?

First, a snapshot of the setup.

• Many players with above-average prowess in aerial contests in the deepest defensive line — allowing them to forgo having all the shorter players as blockers.

  • Allison (193cm), Konate (195cm), Van Dijk (195cm), Gravenberch (190cm), Szoboszlai (186cm)

• A couple of forwards with the bravery to always commit to, not necessarily win, the high-risk duels and 2nd balls that result from initial clearance.

  • The entire Liverpool frontline in this instance is known for exhibiting this trait: Salah, Jota, Diaz.

• A couple of forwards, preferably the same as above, who are comfortable running and carrying the ball across the length of the pitch.

  • Again, the entire Liverpool frontline in this instance is known for exhibiting this trait: Salah, Jota, and Diaz.

• At least a couple of players, stationed at the edge of the box, without man-marking duties.

  • In this case, Salah and Diaz.

As lethal as it is, this goal is not one that other teams can spontaneously plan to replicate. The XI, and the tendencies of the profiles in them, determines which kinds of goals are possible and repeatable.

In another game in the same week as Liverpool's, here is a similar situation with Manchester United's Antony – who often skirts from or struggles with tougher duels:

Antony ducking from a high-risk duel edge of box after an opposition corner

By contrast, here is another instance with Manchester United's Amad Diallo in a similar position at the edge of the box – about whom we've previously written, 'shows a propensity to engage aggressively in challenges, often attempting to poke the ball away.' Ironically, this plays out against Liverpool.

Amad contesting a high-risk duel edge of box after an opposition corner

The point is clear.

On Liverpool's Arne Slot:

In my essay, What Should We Expect from Head Coaches?, I argue that trust is essential trait to platform athletes.

Trust isn't just about believing in a player's ability; it's about nurturing a relationship where the player feels valued and understood, thereby unlocking their potential to excel both on and off the pitch.

Trust manifests in various, often indescribable, ways. Yet, having a strong command of rhetoric and clear oration are two strong indicators that a coach can express trust and earn the buy-in from their players: during half-time team talks, press conferences, training, and in private conversations.

Now, I am by no means an expert in rhetoric and speech – but I feel confident expressing my own reaction to them.

In his post-match interview and other recordings on the web, I have found Slot to be a meticulous orator. Besides his soothing cadence, his responses manage to capture my whole attention.

Listen to this segment after the same Brentford game:

Halftime. 2-0 down. Crowd on your neck. You’re the next sub.

This is the kind of coach you want at your ear before running onto the pitch.

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

Candidates are considered, first and foremost, off what they can offer. Not what they can't.

Whenever you pitch for a job, you allow yourself to be scrutinized by its recruiters. To deem whether you are good enough, sufficiently accomplished, the right fit, and better than other candidates.

In large corporations, the first step is a rough assessment of fit using algorithmic filtering: whether you demonstrate the qualification of job posting. After this stage, you typically undertake a series of sequential interviews that primarily assess what value you bring to the table, if any, and how replicable they are in recruiter's environment:

• Tests

• Problem-sets

• Behavioral interviews

• Integration with current employees

To your abilities are best calibrated and benchmarked, most software engineering roles will even offer these tests in your preferred programming language(s) among the job-posting's permissible options. Demanding you use another, perhaps less familiar one, would only increase the error-margin in their assessment.

Recruiters want to figure out what you can do and how well you do it. From this, they try infer whether you are competitive enough for the role and whether to advance with other checks.

If I had to estimate, >70% of the hiring process probes what you have done and/or can do – the value you bring. <30% unravels your weaknesses – areas to be monitored or coached.

Candidates are considered, first and foremost, off what they can offer. Not what they can't.

Effective scouting follows the same principle: identifying strengths and benchmarking what environment it could be replicated in is more important than flagging weaknesses.

An unordered list of justifications:

1. Teams sports are inherently synergistic. Collective effort often surpasses the sum of individual contributions, allowing us to compensate individual weaknesses through the strengths of others. This dynamic means that a player's unique strengths can significantly enhance overall team performance, even if they have areas needing improvement. A scouting process that prioritizes strength identification and benchmarking returns higher potential recruits.

2. A key goal in any scouting process is to return a selection of recruits who can perform the prescribed role in question. When the pool of applicants – in this case, professional athletes – is already reasonably accomplished and competitive, sieving by strengths preserves the ceiling of talent. Scouts can guarantee that selected athletes bring a sufficient degree of exceptionality to the team and better assess potential integrations and synergies.

3. This principle doesn't necessitate that every trait be boxed into a strength or a weakness. It just means that, for teams looking to recruit the best possible players, the emphasis should be on identifying and maximizing their key strengths. By doing so, scouts can better match players to roles where they will excel, rather than focusing on areas where they may fall short. This strength-based approach ensures that each player’s unique abilities are fully utilized, contributing to the overall success of the team.

4. Say, as prescribed by a scouting brief, we've spotted a player who thrives on runs – has pace, can get in behind the defense, and finish. Our next questions should help us understanding how dangerous these runs are and what level they can be replicated – not whether they are a proficient 1v1 dribbler.

   1. To assess who dangerous the runs are:

      1. Running form of athlete

      2. Comfort under contact

      3. Power in their strides

      4. Variety of runs

      5. Frequency of runs

      6. Potency against different kinds of opposition block-height

      7. Quality of opposition

      8. and so on...

   2. Then, we should be able to posit what level the running combination can be effective. Is it at the same level as Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior in the Champions League or at the level of a squad option in the same or weaker division?

   3. Only then is it reasonable to investigate how well they pass the ball.

5. Say, as prescribed by another scouting brief, we've spotted a player who excels at tackling, covering attackers, and closing down space. Our next questions should help us understand how impactful their defensive abilities are and at what level they can be replicated – not whether they are a proficient playmaker.

   1. To assess how impactful their defensive game is:

      1. Tackling success rate

      2. Intercepting ability

      3. Positional awareness

      4. Recovery speed

      5. Strength in duels

      6. Consistency against different levels of opposition

      7. Influence on team’s defensive solidity

      8. Quality of opposition faced

      9. and so on...

   2. Then, we should be able to posit the level at which their defensive game can be effective. Is it at the level of a Premier League defensive midfielder like Declan Rice, or a squad option in the same or weaker division?

   3. Only then is it reasonable to investigate how well they can pass.

Archive from June 10, 2024

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

I spent more time than I'd like to admit detailing reasons why I think Manchester United's Lisandro Martinez could and should be considered at left-back. Because the argument hints at some of my fundamental interpretations of the sport, I've deemed it necessary to archive.

While some premises may be more subjective than others, I hold each one with deep conviction and careful consideration.

If necessary, I am willing to write and link separate essays for each of the boldened points.

RCB - Right Centre-Back; LCB - Left Centre-Back.

• Fullback is a utility position: a good fullback in one setup performs very different core functions from another.

  • Lisandro Martinez is a good footballer and possibly the most secure in that deep, left zone.

  • Good footballers deliver across board. A ~10-metre difference in set position is inconsequential to his ball playing capacity.

• All fullbacks get dribbled past; it’s a feature, not a bug.

  • Most fullbacks get dribbled past more times than they intervene (except specialists like Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Kyle Walker, and a few others).

  • Martinez, although aggressive, has better defensive fundamentals than both Shaw and Malacia.

  • Because neither Luke Shaw nor Tyrell Malacia is a specialist defender, any pure-defending margin gained or lost with Martinez is insignificant.

• Centre-back is not a utility position.

  • While stylistic difference appear between teams, box-defending, cover-defending, ability to make 1st contact, set-pieces, and clearances are all fundamentals for the centre-back position.

  • Martinez, while a capable LCB (remember, good footballers deliver across board), has deficiencies in a couple of these, which can easily be sealed with a different option.

  • There are seemingly good LCBs in the Market. It’s a good time to grab one. What better way to bed them in than being flanked by Martinez and an RCB on the other side.

• Manchester United are a side in need of margins. Fullback is where the best teams steal margins.

  • At left-back, United would have one of the best deep playmakers in the world in a liberated role.

  • Meanwhile, at center-back, United have a workable player with restrained playmaking potential.

• Shaw, Malacia, and Martinez were injured across almost the entire season. It is unrealistic to expect each one to return with full vim.

  • Tabbing Martinez as a left-back option and signing an LCB helps insure that.

• Whatever running and movement help you suppose United’s left-winger needs, it is possible to get that from midfield.

  • Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes are more than capable of providing cover runs and incisive passing from the left-hand side.

Archive from June 12, 2024

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

You can't escape it.

It chops your flow, comes with an off-setting force, complicates your stride, and occasionally arrives as a slap to the face.

Football. Basketball. Rugby. American football. You name it – as long as it's an open-field ball sport, you'll find it.

The best runners love it. The best tacklers know how to evade it.

Kind readers, our special guest today is the stiff arm.

Welcome to Precision Play, a BallerzBantz series.

This essay will examine the stiff arm action and explain why it is a valuable tool for runners or carriers in open-field sports.

As usual, the archive, if any, will be appended underneath each section.

Because of how large spaces are in open field sports, athletes, owing to their build and various tools, maintain their own circle of control. This is essentially a comfort zone around a player's pivot, within which they best manipulate the ball and charge through the field.

General inferences around build:

• Taller, rangy athletes tend to have a wider circle of control.

• Shorter athletes with have a narrower circle of control.

• Athletes with better balance have a tighter (more authority) circle of control.

• Athletes with worse balance have a looser (less authority) circle of control.

Then, wherever any of these base-builds need compensation, they develop tools and tricks to consolidate.

One of these tools is the stiff arm, which players use it to prevent encroachment and retain command when they run, receive the ball, or dribble it.

"Claim your circle."

"Upset your opponent’s balance."

"Own the space."

"Drive."

Once you see it, it makes sense why certain players are better take-on artist or duelers than others.

Case-Study: Kobbie Mainoo

Yesterday, I woke up to this statistic. Kobbie Mainoo's Manchester United's most reliable dribbler (take-ons) since Paul Pogba.

Now, they both wield rather distinct frames: Paul's 6 foot 4, lankier, and has got longer legs; Kobbie's 6 foot 0, shorter legs. Both have rather compact builds.

One LOUD trait they both have in common, though, is a preference for and consistency with the stiff arm to expand and exert dominance in their circle of control. This, in tandem with their compact builds, means they are able to reliably take on players inside their circle.

Shots of Kobbie using the stiff arm:

Slideshow: click the button to see all the photos! If it doesn't work, it means Getty gave me the wrong code.

Embed from Getty Images

How do tacklers contend?

It is practical to consider every duel as one player's circle of control vs another's.

This means that for the players with tight circle of controls, only tacklers who are possess similar or greater girths can reliably compete.

This is one reason why players like Everton's Amadou Onana are especially valuable for teams that are obsessed with dominating all kinds of duels, against all types of tools, against all builds of players.

Sometimes pictures tell the entire story:

• the tussle of hands to find a gap

• shiftiness from either dueler

• Amadou's extraordinary reach to challenge and (attempt to) encroach Kobbie's circle.

What about other sports?

The Stiff Arm in Action

Football

⚽️ pic.twitter.com/UdEsu4htCg

— Joel A. A. (@joeladejola) November 21, 2023

American Football

🏈pic.twitter.com/7eGHKWuXKt

— Joel A. A. (@joeladejola) November 21, 2023

Basketball

🏀 pic.twitter.com/P2Dj6ItboS

— Joel A. A. (@joeladejola) November 21, 2023

Rugby

🏉pic.twitter.com/Z7hqML6V7X

— Joel A. A. (@joeladejola) November 21, 2023

Archive from November 20, 2023

Curiosities:

• Tall Order: Tosin Adarabioyo by Sébastian [@SebC__]

  • And for sparking some of the aforementioned test-cases.

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.

Two days ago, I wrote about the importance of reflecting while scouting and why it's important to re-visit projections – and the chain of inferences behind them.

Today, I'll share a condensed version of my reflections around Benfica's João Neves using the prescribed guiding questions in that essay.

Reflection as a Scouting Optimizer

About João

João Neves is a Portuguese midfielder born on September 27, 2004, in Faro, Portugal. He began his football journey at Casa Benfica Tavira before joining the Benfica academy in 2016 – debuted for the first team in January 1, 2023.

Height and Physical Profile: 174 cm. Built. Dynamic turner once he gets low and sets hands into motion. Great balance and pivot under pressure. Tremendous intensity in all his duels.

This next section will cover my first impression: my first take. The one after will cover reflections and subsequent change to my projections.

Response to guide questions on [Experience]:

Archive from 17 November, 2023

• What do I already know about a player/role/region?

  • Lightweight but mobile

  • Quick – maybe hasty – to release the ball

  • Follows up forward passes with runs in-behind

  • Portuguese players generally strike the ball well – Joao Neves does too.

• Where did I get the data from?

  • Two full match compilations. One on Twitter. One on Youtube.

  • Read several glowing remarks about him online, but came out unshaken till I saw myself.

• Did I arrive at these conclusions myself or rely on another's inference?

  • My conclusions were, at least at that time, contrary to public opinion and the views of my small network of scouts.

    • It is plausible that passively consuming opinions online had raised my expectations to the point where I expected to see Superman on the pitch.

Response to guide questions on [Reflection]:

Archive from 7 May, 2024

• Did I make any projections?

  • Yes.

    • That he came off as a shuttler – midfielder who moves between lines, gets tackles and interceptions in, connecting phases when needed.

    • That his tendencies didn't indicate a player who'll thrive as a team's main ticker on the ball (especially in the Premier League).

    • That teams looking for outright shuttlers might be better off targeting players who are more gifted in duels (specifically the 1st contact) and command space.

      • As an addendum, I added that I did not see where he fit in Manchester United's, under Erik Ten Hag, game-model – especially given the reported 120 million euros price point.

• Has it yielded yet?

  • Uncertain. In the meantime, I have already recalibrated my projection.

  • • João has ended the season strongly and is reportedly a target for some of Europe's biggest clubs.

    • Since then, I have asked around for feedback and seen more footage of the Portuguese.

  • If not, what kind(s) of error did you make?

  • • • A logic error:

        • • Here is one chain of inferences I made during my initial typing: Robust athlete -> Currently a great shuttler -> What are features of other great shuttlers at this age? -> benchmarked him against those -> Concluded that he was a good shuttler and solely that.

          • Whereas, there’s a frame where shuttling might just be one of his other qualities.

          • This might also be a category error: I overfitted to his tendencies in his current setup and typed him on that alone.

  • Then, revisit old footage and evidence you considered to find where you might have missed the loop.

    • • I maintain that the perception of João Neves's aerial dominance is exaggerated by his stature: good for his height but average overall. He does well dealing with 2nd balls, average or a non-dueler on 1st contact, and a below-average aerial cover in set-pieces.

      • Great sense of tempo – when to release, with how much vim, and when to intercede for teammates.

      • High creative ceiling: sees passes and opportunities outside the usual range. Executes some with unconventional releases too: outside foot, clipped, after a dribble. These balls are often matched with runs by his teammates, suggesting a profound trust in João's ability.

      • While his build and frame might suggest a poker-tackler – João's got a knack for gathering the ball after he commits.

      • Especially because of his high offensive ceiling – albeit only seen in flashes at the moment – and the supreme intensity of actions João is one you could build a Champions League midfield around.

The lists and responses in this essay are non-exhaustive.

A tweet I made post-reflection

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Who is the Writer?

Joel A. Adejola is an undergraduate at the University of Kansas (KU), studying Engineering and Philosophy.

Non-trivial insights on strategy, scouting, and mechanics.